Last month I wrote a post comparing the 2010 Detroit Lions to the 2009 and 2008 squads on a statistical basis. Because the 2010 season had not come to a close, that post prorated the then-current 2010 statistics over the full season to provide an apples-to-apples comparison. Now the 2010 season is over, so a “real numbers” apples-to-apples comparison can be made. This is that comparison.
Category |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
First downs |
234 |
281 |
304 |
First downs allowed |
350 |
332 |
320 |
First down ratio |
-116 |
-51 |
-16 |
Third down conversions |
29% |
49% |
40% |
Third down conversions allowed |
46% |
44% |
39% |
Third down ratio |
-17% |
5% |
1% |
Total yards |
4292 |
4784 |
5423 |
Total yards allowed |
6470 |
6274 |
5497 |
Total yards ratio |
-2718 |
-1490 |
-74 |
Rushing yards |
1332 |
1616 |
1613 |
Rushing yards allowed |
2754 |
2025 |
1999 |
Rushing yards ratio |
-1422 |
-409 |
-386 |
Passing yards |
2960 |
3168 |
3810 |
Passing yards allowed |
3716 |
4249 |
3498 |
Passing yards ratio |
-756 |
-1081 |
312 |
Completion percentage |
55% |
54% |
61% |
Completion percentage against |
68% |
68% |
64% |
Completion percentage ratio |
-13% |
-14% |
-3% |
Sacks |
30 |
26 |
44 |
Sacks allowed |
52 |
43 |
27 |
Sacks ratio |
-22 |
-23 |
17 |
Turnover ratio |
-9 |
-18 |
4 |
Of the eight above statistical categories — which I would say are the key stats to winning football games — the 2008 Lions were better than their opponents at none. And they won zero games. The 2009 Lions were better than their opponents at exactly one. And they won two games.
But 2010 was different.
In 2010, the Lions outgunned their opponents in terms of third-down conversions, passing yards, sacks and turnovers. Further, they were just barely edged out by their opponents in terms of first downs (-1 per game), total yards (-4.6 per game), rushing yards (-24.15 per game) and completion percentage (-3% overall). And they won six* games. That is an infinite number more than they won in 2008, and 300 percent more than they won in 2009.
I’ll say it now, and I’ll stand by it next year: The 2011 Detroit Lions are going to be playing in the 2011 post-season.
*I think we all know they actually won seven games, but we will call it six for the Carebears fans who might read this.