Last month I wrote that “Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers is the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.” In that post, I observed that in the past 20 years only five pitchers have achieved 23 wins or more during a single regular season. At the time, Detroit’s Justin Verlander and New York’s C.C. Sabathia were both on pace to do so this year. Let’s check back in to see how they are doing.

New York’s Sabathia has now pitched 30 games. He has 19 wins, 7 losses and 4 blown saves/no decisions. Thus, Sabathia’s season win percentage is 63.33 percent. Slated for three more starts this regular season, at his current pace he would finish with 20 or 21 wins. Consistent with my previous prediction, I’m guessing he ends up on the low end. My pessimism is based in the numbers. Sabathia’s win percentage in his last ten games is 60 percent, which is about three and a third percent under his season percentage. More telling is his ERA. Last month, his ERA was nearly double his season average.

In short, it looks like Sabathia is tiring out and losing his stuff.

Compounding this is the fact that two of his remaining starts are against very good hitting teams (the Angels and the Red Socks). I’m penciling loses in those two games, leaving him with 20 wins for the season. Impressive, but not on Verlander’s level.

Detroit’s Verlander is another story. In his 31 starts, he already has 22 wins, just five losses and four blown saves/no decisions. So his win percentage is an awesome 71 percent. And he still has three more starts to go. At his current pace, he will finish with a beastly 24 wins.

But here’s the thing: Verlander is going to win 25.

He hasn’t lost a game since July 15, which was 11 games ago. That means that his 10-game win percentage is 100 percent. And the Tigers’ bats are finally waking up. In September, they are averaging more than 9 runs per game. Verlander wins games if his team can score a run or two. At run support to the tune of nine, he won’t lose.

Twenty-five wins.

They might as well give him the Cy Young now.

And let the MVP talk commence.

In the last twenty years, five pitchers have achieved 23 wins or more during a single regular season. In 1996, John Smoltz won 24 for the Atlanta Braves. In ’99, Pedro Martinez won 23 for the Red Sox. The remaining three achieved the feat in 2002, with Randy Johnson and Curt Shilling taking 24 and 23 respectively for the Arizona Diamond Backs and Barry Zito winning 23 for the Oakland As. That is all. No one has done it since 2002. In this age of baseball, it’s a pretty big deal.

This season, there are two pitchers with a shot at it. New York Yankees pitcher C.C. Sabathia has won 16 of his 21 starts. He is slated to start another 8 games this regular season.If Sabathia keeps up his 76 percent win percentage, that will put him at 22 wins. Just shy of the mark. Detroit’s Justin Verlander has won 15 of his 20 starts. He is scheduled for nine more starts this regular season but will get ten if the race for the AL Central stays tight. Assuming he keeps up his 75 percent win percentage, he will finish with 21 or 22 wins.

But here is the difference: Sabathia’s five losses are spread out equally over the entire season, and his ERA is holding relatively steady on a month-to-month basis. Thus, there is no reason to believe Sabathia will improve his win percentage over his remaining games. Verlander, though, is getting hot. Three of his five losses occurred in April, early in the season. More illustrative is his ERA. During the month of April, Verlander’s ERA was 3.5. In May it was 2.62. In June, Verlander dropped to a ridiculous .92. And then in July, he kept it low with a 1.99.

Sabathia is great. He has been great all season, and every indication is that he will continue to be great, dropping only one out of four games he pitches. But Verlander is on another level right now. His win percentage is lower than what he should be able to do for his remaining games. Don’t look now, but Verlander could very well achieve 23 wins this regular season, putting him with an elite group. He is the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.

For you Angels fans, Jared Weaver isn’t even in the conversation. Didn’t you see him get shelled by Ordonez and Guillen on Sunday?