I’ve been writing semi-regular posts here about my beloved Detroit Lions since late in the 2010 season. My posts have all been based in statistics and not opinion. This time around, that is going to be difficult given that draft predictions so often come down to opinion. But I’ll give it a try. Through this post, I offer Martin Mayhew free advice* regarding whom the Lions should draft this year.

Keeping with the previous format, my analysis is based upon the statistical categories which I’ve previously identified as key to winning football games. I’ve compared the 2011 regular season Detroit Lions to both the NFC and AFC champions. This chart summarizes that comparison:

As you can see, I’ve highlighted in either gold or maroon (Fire Up Chips!) those statistical categories in which the 2011 NFC and AFC Champions regular season average exceeded the performance of the 2011 Detroit Lions. There are 8 categories so highlighted out of a possible 15.

(Stop and consider that for a moment: The 2011 Detroit Lions outpaced the average plan of the 2011 NFC and AFC champions during the regular season in over 46 percent of the key statistical categories. We are getting close!)

You can’t address every need in a single draft, so I’ve divided the eight problematic statistical categories into two sub-categories: Key areas in need of improvement, highlighted in maroon; and not-so-key areas in need of improvement, highlighted in gold. I can hear you yelling: “But how did you determine which were key and which were not-so-key?” Don’t fret. I’ll tell you. The key areas in need of improvement are those areas in which the 2011 Lions failed to outplay either of the 2011 champs, and the not-so-key areas in need of improvement are those in which the 2011 Lions exceeded the performance of one of the 2011 champs. Brilliant!

In past drafts, Monsieur Mayhew has taken the best player available, or BPA. Mayhew has applied that strategy very strictly regardless of positional need. And that has worked fine for Detroit for the past few years, because the Lions had a need to improve at virtually every position. But now we know what we have in Matthew Stafford, and we have more depth at defensive tackle than any other team in the league. So we are set at those positions. Given that, a strict BPA strategy will not work anymore.

Instead, the team should choose its picks in the 2012 draft pursuant to the following four rules, which I like to call a Modified BPA Approach:

Rule 1

Take the BPA, unless the BPA is a quarterback or a defensive tackle.

Rule 2

Where there is no consensus non-quarterback/defensive tackle BPA, take the player who addresses most directly the largest number of key areas of need. Pursuant to this rule, offensive lineman are given first preference, because the position group is the only one that directly addresses two key areas of need (3rd down conversions and sacks allowed). In second preference, you’ll find running backs and wide receivers/tight ends (who address directly 3rd down conversions) along with defensive ends and linebackers (who address directly rushing yards allowed). Finally, in last preference sit the defensive backs, because they do not address directly a key area of need.

Rule 3

Where Rule 2 fails to decide your pick, take the player who filtered down this far and who addresses directly the largest number of not-so-key areas of need. Like Rule 2, Rule 3 has preference groups. Running backs sit alone in first preference because they address directly two not-so-key areas of need (1st downs and rushing yards). Wide receivers, tight ends, defensive ends and line backers are all tied at second preference. Note that offensive lineman and defensive backs will not be in play in the application of Rule 3 if Rules 1 and 2 are correctly applied. Explained further, if a defensive back or offensive lineman is the clear BPA, Rule 1 requires that he be the pick. If a player from either position group is “tied” as BPA with any other player from any other position group (except quarterback or defensive tackle), Rule 2’s preference structure will determine the pick. In the case of the offensive lineman, Rule 2 requires that he be the pick. In the case of the defensive back, Rule 2 requires that the other “tied” player be the pick.

Rule 4

Where Rule 3 fails to decide your pick, go with your gut. Note that only wide receivers, tight ends, defensive ends and linebackers will be in play in the application of Rule 4. The explanation is similar to the one given previously regarding the application of Rule 3.

To attempt to eliminate any of that nasty opinion stuff sneaking in and affecting my methodology, I’ve enlisted my good friend Paul Drake to independently apply the rules as well. A fellow transplant from the Mitten State, Mr. Drake is a dear friend of mine who also loves the Lions (and Tigers and Redwings). He is also a University of Michigan fan, but no one is perfect. Mr. Drake knows more about the Lions than anyone I know, and he also loves NFL Football more than anyone else on the planet, myself included. For that reason, he was the first person I thought of to help me author this post. Since he is one of the best people alive — seriously, ask my sister how great this guy is** — he agreed to help.

Note that we have not considered pick trade possibilities for the sake of simplicity. Also, we’ve offered our primary pick and an alternate pick for the event that our desired player is already off the board.

Drum Roll Please:

What the Detroit Lions should do in Round 1 of the 2012 NFL Draft

Perry Mason

With the 23rd pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions take Cordy Glenn, guard from Georgia. The likely availability of safety Mark Barron and linebacker Dont’a Hightower, both from Alabama, keep me from saying Glenn is the consensus BPA. So I had to apply Rule 2 here, which says I need to favor offensive lineman before linebackers and defensive backs if I think they are all tied as the BPA. Doing so here will net the Lions one heck of a football player.

At the NFL combine, Glenn measured 6 feet, 5 inches tall and a massive 345 pounds. His 35.75-inch-long arms are among the tops for offensive linemen, which gives him the physical specifications to be a flexible position player between tackle and guard. Despite his long arms, he was able to put up 31 reps on the bench press, which is one more than the consensus top-rated offensive lineman in the draft, Matt Kalil from USC. So he is big, and he is strong. And he ran a 5.15 40-time. That is impressive for a 345-pound man. What is perhaps more impressive is his 10-yard split.

But Glenn is not superman. He needs to work on his footwork if he wants to block NFL pass-rushers. While he moves well for a guy as big as he is, quick pass-rushers will give him fits. That is why I think he might still be on the board at #23. If he is, then he should be a Lion.

My alternate pick is Alabama linebacker Hightower. If Glenn is gone, I think Hightower and Barron are “tied” as the BPA, and Rule 2 requires me to take the linebacker before the defensive back. Hightower is a big guy at 6 feet, 2 inches and 265 pounds, and he is quick enough with a 4.62 40-time to play middle linebacker. In 2011, the Lions enjoyed the services of Stephen Tulloch at that position. However, Tulloch is a free agent and the word on the street is that he and the Lions are not close to reaching a deal. Hightower will make the loss of Tulloch sting less. I like this pick. Not nearly as much as I like Glenn, but I like this pick.

Paul Drake

I have to agree with Mr. Mason on this pick. If Glenn falls to us at the 23rd pick, he will be the BPA. He fills Rule 1 and Rule 2. He has to be the pick. In Glenn, the Lions get a road grater at guard and added depth to the tackle position as he is versatile enough to play both positions. With some good coaching from Rob Sims and the coaching staff, I believe Glenn will be a future Pro Bowl guard. The Lions offensive line immediately improves with this pick.

Mr. Mason has the right position but the wrong player for his alternate pick. Stephen Tulloch will be gone, but the coaching staff will move Deandre Levy back to his natural middle linebacker position, which he played in 2009 and 2010. That will leave a hole at weak-side linebacker, and Hightower is not the man for the job. The pick is Zach Brown, linebacker, from UNC. Brown had a nice combine and showed his explosiveness. He is faster than Hightower with a 4.5 40-time and can make plays all over the field. Detroit rarely sends a linebacker on a blitz but with Brown’s speed we’d be crazy not to. Brown excels in pass coverage, which we all know will be helpful. With Brown in our back 7 on defense we have now neutralized the tight ends and screen plays. An explosive, raw talent that will give some team an immediate playmaker. We need more playmakers. Brown is our man if Glenn isn’t there.

What the Detroit Lions should do in Round 2 of the 2012 NFL Draft

Perry Mason

With the 54th pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions take Doug Martin, running back from Boise State University. I like Martin so much that I think Rule 1 dictates that the Lions take him as the clear BPA if he is still available at Pick 54. Martin is a short, heavy back with good speed. At the combine, he ran a 4.47 40-time and put up 28 reps on the bench. He also moved well in positional drills and showed that he has good hands when called upon to catch the ball. Given this, he would directly address the third-down conversions category. Additionally, Martin is a balanced and capable pass blocker who can directly address the Sacks Allowed category. Welcome to the team, Mr. Martin. I sure hope you turn out to be the next Ray Rice.

Round 2 Alternate: Kelechi Osemele, guard from Iowa State. If Martin is gone, I like Osemele, Chase Minnifield (corner back from Virginia) and Mychal Kendricks (linebacker from Cal) as tied for BPA. Rule 2 tells me I have to take the offensive lineman in such a situation, and the Lions would be pleased to have Osemele. He is a great run blocker with super long arms. He has the physical makeup to be a right tackle at the NFL level. He is also reliable, starting 40 straight at Iowa State. He will need some help developing as a pass blocker but could prove to be a value pick here. Taking Glenn and Osemele as our first- and second-round picks would put a big smile on my face.

Paul Drake

I too think that Rule 1 determines the Round 2 pick, but I don’t think Martin is the BPA. Instead, it’s Bruce Irvin, defensive end from West Virginia. The process of trying to re-sign Cliff Avril is not going the way the Lions want, and they will take a hard look at a DE in this draft. Schwartz and Gunther’s system is based around the defensive line getting good pressure. When management takes a close look at available talent, they will see Bruce Irvin as the perfect peg for the hole that Avril might leave. He has a super high motor and specializes in getting to the QB. Playing next to Suh and Fairley would be a dream come true for Irvin. His standout combine performance last week put him in a position to do that and made it clear to me that he is the BPA here. It doesn’t hurt that he is a great fit for this defense that will ask him to go get the quarterback.

Regarding Perry Mason’s alternate pick, he’s right and wrong. Minnifield is the BPA, but he isn’t tied with anyone. He is the clear BPA for me if Irvin is gone. Minnifield did not perform at the combine due to an injury but has great film to look at. A very good cover corner and an above average run defender. Being a good tackler will go a long ways with Coach Schwartz. Minnifield would also bring an added element in the return game as well. If Irvin is off the board, the Lions will get their Corner.

What the Detroit Lions should do in Round 3 of the 2012 NFL Draft

Perry Mason

By the 86th pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, the Goodell walks to the podium and tries to announce the Lions’ pick.

You can’t hear him though, because all the fans are screaming, “Why haven’t we taken a corner back!?” Come on man. Go back and read the rules. With the 85th pick of the 2012 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions shock the world by double- or maybe even triple-dipping at the offensive line position group by taking Jeff Allen, offensive tackle from Illinois. Allen is a big boy with good balance. He had a really impressive combine, showing a good mix of speed and strength in his bench press and 40-time. More important, he looked great in positional drills, and we think he can develop into a good blocker who can get to the second level in run blocking when called upon. Plus, draft expert Mike Mayock likes him a lot. Allen is admittedly a sleeper prospect, but you can’t hope for much else in Round 3.

Round 3 Alternate: Tommy Streeter, wide receiver from Miami. Streeter is tied as BPA with Allen in my opinion, so if Allen is gone, Streeter is my Rule 1 pick. Here is why: Streeter is 6 feet, 5 inches tall (the tallest at the combine), 219 pounds, and he ran a 4.40 40 at the combine. On tape, he has incredible deep speed. He is a very raw route runner, however, and will need some coaching and mentoring to reach his potential. That is why we think he might still be on the board when the Lions pick here. We would love to see him in Honolulu Blue, learning from the best in the business. Can you imagine Megatron and Streeter running deep routes while Burleson and Young run underneath? This would be a dream come true for Stafford.

Paul Drake

Right position group, wrong player. The pick here is Ben Jones, center from Georgia. Jones is as good as Allen but has the ability to provide a potential upgrade to current Lions center Dominic Raiola. Raiola is getting long in the tooth, and there is a huge need for his replacement. At this point in the draft you’re looking for value anywhere you can get it, and center is one of those positions. Jones would fit under the top 2 rules here and would be great value if he was still on the board. Jones performed well at the combine and could contribute in opening some holes for the running game. He needs some work, and Raiola is a good leader who could teach him the ins and outs of the center position. And if Stafford needs better protection, what better than to give him two Georgia boys?

As for the Round 3 alternate? Bingo! Tommy Streeter is a big, fast receiver who could be a great asset in Detroit’s offense. He would provide the deep threat that Burleson has not performed well at. This pick would actually provide some serious flexibility by allowing us to cut ties with Burleson and free up some much needed cap space. I’m not sure Streeter will be available here, but if he is, he is a great pick!

So there you have it: The first three rounds of the Detroit Lions 2012 draft. Can you imagine being a Suhper Bowl Champion in your rookie year? These guys hit the jackpot. Good on them.

*We will be happy to come out and give you further insight any time, Mr. Mayhew. Give us a shout and we’ll be there.

**Paul Drake is going to help Rockford and Perry Mason build a fence in my backyard. We are fans of Paul Drake, indeed. — N